这是一篇不太容易引起人们注意的新闻，2018一季度中国的经常账户(current-account surplus)首次出现了1794亿元人民币的赤字，约合282亿美元。细项中，货品贸易部分是顺差534亿，而服务贸易则是逆差762亿。 这是中国加入世贸组织以来的首次经常账户逆差
Disappearing trick 变戏法
China’s vanished current-account surplus will change the world economy
The yuan will become more volatile, but also start to rival the dollar
May 17th 2018 | SHANGHAI
NOT long ago China was a leading culprit in global economic imbalances. Whether blame was ascribed to its undervalued yuan or its frugal people, the problem seemed clear. China was selling a lot abroad and buying too little back. One data-point summed this up: its currentaccount surplus reached 10% of GDP in 2007, well above the level that is generally seen as reasonable. Far less attention has been paid to its steady decline since then. In the first quarter of 2018 China ran a current-account deficit, its first since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001. Just as its massive surpluses of yore had big consequences for the global economy, so does this swing in the opposite direction.
1 vanish |ˈvænɪʃ| （莫名其妙地）突然消失 2 current-account surplus 经常账户盈余 3 volatile 易变的;动荡不定的;反复无常的 易变的;动荡不定的;反复无常的 3 ascribe to 把…归因于；认为…是由于 4 frugal （对金钱、食物等）节约的，节俭的 5 yore |jɔ:(r)| <书>往昔，昔时 of yore 很久以前
China still exports many more goods than it imports, to the tune of nearly $500bn annually. But its share of global exports appears to have peaked. At the same time its trade deficit in services is getting bigger, largely thanks to all its tourists venturing abroad (see chart).
1 the tune of sth（用于强调）总额达，总数
At bottom, a current-account balance is the difference between a country’s investment and savings. When China had a big surplus, its savings, at 50% of GDP, far outstripped even its colossal investment. Data on savings are patchy in China. But it is known that investment has declined as a share of GDP. The implication is that the rate of savings has almost certainly declined more sharply, reflecting a big increase in consumption. Its economy is, in other words, better balanced than just a short while ago.
1 At bottom 归根结底；本质上；实际上 2 outstrip |ˌaʊtˈstrɪp| 比…大（或重要等）；超过；胜过 3 colossal |kəˈlɒsl; 美 kəˈlɑ:sl|巨大的；庞大的 4 patchy |ˈpætʃi| 零散的；散落的；分布不匀的
China’s current-account deficit in the first quarter was exaggerated, since exports tend to be subdued at the start of the year. It is likely to return to a surplus in the coming months. But Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered, an emerging-markets bank, forecasts that the surplus will be just 1% of GDP this year and 0.5% next year. The trade ruckus with America could reinforce the downward trend. To placate President Donald Trump, China will try to import more from America and pay more for foreign intellectual property (IP), Mr Ding says.
1 exaggerated |ɪgˈzædʒəreɪtɪd| 夸张的；夸大的；言过其实的 2 subdued |səbˈdju:d; 美 -ˈdu:d| 不活跃的；低迷的；萧条的 3 ruckus |ˈrʌkəs| 喧闹；骚动；争吵 4 downward |ˈdaʊnwəd; 美 -wərd| 下降的；向下的 5 placate |pləˈkeɪt; 美ˈpleɪkeɪt| 安抚；平息（怒气）
One probable outcome is that the exchange rate will become more volatile. In recent years capital outflows have pressed down on the yuan, but the current-account surplus has countered that effect. In the future China will have a thinner cushion. Depending on quarterly trade swings, the yuan will be as likely to fall as to rise.
1 outflow |ˈaʊtfləʊ; 美 -floʊ| 外流；流出量 2 counter |ˈkaʊntə(r)|抵制；抵消 3 cushion |ˈkʊʃn| 护垫，隔垫
If China’s current-account deficits become more frequent, it will have to run down its foreign assets or borrow more from abroad to pay for its consumption. Should its external liabilities—that is, money it owes the rest of the world—increase rapidly, that might signal greater financial vulnerability. But as long as the increase is moderate, it could actually help China by boosting the yuan’s global profile.
1 external liabilities 对外负债 2 vulnerable |ˈvʌlnərəbl| 脆弱的;易受伤害的 3 moderate |ˈmɒdərət; 美ˈmɑ:d-| 适度的；中等的
To fund its deficit, China might choose to sell more bonds to foreign investors. And in paying more for goods and services than it earns, it could supply its currency abroad. By itself this would not be enough to make the yuan go global. Investors would need more faith in China’s institutions. But technically, the conditions would be ripe for the yuan’s emergence as a more credible rival to the dollar. America might find itself pining for the days when the Chinese currency was undervalued.
1 bond |bɒnd; 美 bɑ:nd| 债券；公债 2 currency |ˈkʌrənsi; 美 ˈkɜ:r-|通货；货币 3 ripe |raɪp| 时机成熟的；适宜的 4 pine |paɪn| （因死亡、离别） 难过，悲伤