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人民币挑战美元?

奇葩说英语 2019-02-13 06:40:15

新闻背景


首次赤字


这是一篇不太容易引起人们注意的新闻,2018一季度中国的经常账户(current-account surplus)首次出现了1794亿元人民币的赤字,约合282亿美元。细项中,货品贸易部分是顺差534亿,而服务贸易则是逆差762亿。 这是中国加入世贸组织以来的首次经常账户逆差

 

1,服务贸易逆差中有不少是全球购的游客贡献的。


2017 年全年,我国的旅游逆差额是2251亿美刀,这里面应该也统计了出国读书的学生和陪读家长的开支,海外看危重大病,和海外产子的费用,以及一些大佬用个人或家庭名义在海外投资买房等巨额支出。这些花销里虽然也包含了“旅游”的成分,但大头和旅游业无关

 

2,如前天的文章,中国人能疯狂出境游和疯狂买买买,根本上还是政府鼓励大家出去,否则签证和护照不会那么好办

 

3,国家外汇管理局新闻发言人的说,赤字主要是受了季节性因素及货物进口增长较快影响。

查一下新闻会知道,我国的经常账户盈余是逐年收窄的,和川普来一次"准"贸易战就引发了首次赤字,这背后是,2017年中国经常账户余额占GDP百分比已降至1.3%,预计今年和明年会到1%,甚至0.5%。要知道,中国经常账户盈余曾占GDP的50%

 

4,这事是好是坏我不能妄言,至少不是全坏。一味攒钱而不投资,不消费并不健康,有进有出才能持续。

美国一直喊着要缩小赤字,但美国的巨额贸易赤字也是美元作为国际通用货币的必然特征。美国通过发行国债(印美元)就能换到别国真实的商品和服务,这个顶级技能现在只有美国人有。


中国经常账户出现赤字或许多少是我党有意为之,这或许是人民币作为国际货币的发端。

 

PS1 :今后,人民币汇率可能会经常出现波动,而非像之前一样一直相对稳在一个固定值上

PS2: 赤字一味扩大当然不好,国家前段时间严厉打击一些大企业在海外大把大把的投资,或许根结就在此处




Disappearing trick 变戏法

Chinas vanished current-account surplus will change the world economy

中国消失的经常账户盈余会改变世界经济

The yuan will become more volatile, but also start to rival the dollar

人民币的波动会加剧,与此同时也会开始挑战美元的地位

May 17th 2018 | SHANGHAI

NOT long ago China was a leading culprit in global economic imbalances. Whether blame was ascribed to its undervalued yuan or its frugal people, the problem seemed clear. China was selling a lot abroad and buying too little back. One data-point summed this up: its currentaccount surplus reached 10% of GDP in 2007, well above the level that is generally seen as reasonable. Far less attention has been paid to its steady decline since then. In the first quarter of 2018 China ran a current-account deficit, its first since joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001. Just as its massive surpluses of yore had big consequences for the global economy, so does this swing in the opposite direction.

 

1 vanish |ˈvænɪʃ| (莫名其妙地)突然消失 2 current-account surplus  经常账户盈余 3 volatile 易变的;动荡不定的;反复无常的 易变的;动荡不定的;反复无常的 3 ascribe to 把…归因于;认为…是由于 4 frugal (对金钱、食物等)节约的,节俭的 5 yore |jɔ:(r)| <书>往昔,昔时 of yore 很久以前 

 

China still exports many more goods than it imports, to the tune of nearly $500bn annually. But its share of global exports appears to have peaked. At the same time its trade deficit in services is getting bigger, largely thanks to all its tourists venturing abroad (see chart).

 

1 the tune of sth(用于强调)总额达,总数  

 

At bottom, a current-account balance is the difference between a country’s investment and savings. When China had a big surplus, its savings, at 50% of GDP, far outstripped even its colossal investment. Data on savings are patchy in China. But it is known that investment has declined as a share of GDP. The implication is that the rate of savings has almost certainly declined more sharply, reflecting a big increase in consumption. Its economy is, in other words, better balanced than just a short while ago.

 

1 At bottom 归根结底;本质上;实际上 2 outstrip |ˌaʊtˈstrɪp| 比…大(或重要等);超过;胜过 3 colossal |kəˈlɒsl; 美 kəˈlɑ:sl|巨大的;庞大的 4 patchy |ˈpætʃi| 零散的;散落的;分布不匀的

 

China’s current-account deficit in the first quarter was exaggerated, since exports tend to be subdued at the start of the year. It is likely to return to a surplus in the coming months. But Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered, an emerging-markets bank, forecasts that the surplus will be just 1% of GDP this year and 0.5% next year. The trade ruckus with America could reinforce the downward trend. To placate President Donald Trump, China will try to import more from America and pay more for foreign intellectual property (IP), Mr Ding says.

 

1 exaggerated |ɪgˈzædʒəreɪtɪd| 夸张的;夸大的;言过其实的 2 subdued |səbˈdju:d; 美 -ˈdu:d| 不活跃的;低迷的;萧条的 3 ruckus |ˈrʌkəs| 喧闹;骚动;争吵 4 downward |ˈdaʊnwəd; 美 -wərd| 下降的;向下的 5 placate |pləˈkeɪt; 美ˈpleɪkeɪt| 安抚;平息(怒气)

 

One probable outcome is that the exchange rate will become more volatile. In recent years capital outflows have pressed down on the yuan, but the current-account surplus has countered that effect. In the future China will have a thinner cushion. Depending on quarterly trade swings, the yuan will be as likely to fall as to rise.

 

1 outflow |ˈaʊtfləʊ; 美 -floʊ| 外流;流出量 2 counter |ˈkaʊntə(r)|抵制;抵消 3 cushion |ˈkʊʃn| 护垫,隔垫   

 

If China’s current-account deficits become more frequent, it will have to run down its foreign assets or borrow more from abroad to pay for its consumption. Should its external liabilities—that is, money it owes the rest of the world—increase rapidly, that might signal greater financial vulnerability. But as long as the increase is moderate, it could actually help China by boosting the yuan’s global profile.

 

1 external liabilities 对外负债 2 vulnerable |ˈvʌlnərəbl| 脆弱的;易受伤害的 3 moderate  |ˈmɒdərət; 美ˈmɑ:d-| 适度的;中等的

 

To fund its deficit, China might choose to sell more bonds to foreign investors. And in paying more for goods and services than it earns, it could supply its currency abroad. By itself this would not be enough to make the yuan go global. Investors would need more faith in China’s institutions. But technically, the conditions would be ripe for the yuan’s emergence as a more credible rival to the dollar. America might find itself pining for the days when the Chinese currency was undervalued.

 

1 bond |bɒnd; 美 bɑ:nd| 债券;公债 2 currency |ˈkʌrənsi; 美 ˈkɜ:r-|通货;货币 3 ripe |raɪp| 时机成熟的;适宜的 4 pine |paɪn| (因死亡、离别) 难过,悲伤



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